How to Identify Trending Toys Before They Go Viral (Amazon Sellers’ Research Blueprint)

How to Identify Trending Toys Before They Go Viral (Amazon Sellers’ Research Blueprint)

If you sell toys online, or are thinking of entering the category, timing is everything!

Many sellers focus on what’s popular today, but the real profits are made by those who can spot what will be popular tomorrow. The toy market moves fast, driven by trends, social media, seasonal moments, licensing deals, educational shifts, safety regulations, and changing parenting behaviours.

Being early means:

  • Lower competition

  • Higher margins

  • Faster sell-through

  • Better buyer reviews

  • Repeat purchases

This guide breaks down how Amazon sellers, Shopify retailers, and brick-and-mortar stores can research and identify toys that are about to take off.

Why Identifying Trends Early Matters to Retailers

Before diving into research tactics, let’s unpack why this matters.

When you catch a toy trend pre-peak:

  • You can avoid being price-beaten during peak competition

  • You retain higher Buy Box margins on Amazon

  • You lower your ACOS (advertising spend)

  • You can control pricing in marketplaces

  • You negotiate better wholesale terms

  • You scale safely without dead stock

For physical stores, early trend awareness means:

  • Shelf dominance during seasonal spikes

  • Faster stock turnover

  • Increased average basket size

  • Repeat parent purchases

 The “Trending Toy Opportunity” Framework

When evaluating whether a toy is worth adding to your stocklist, base it on these 5 core factors:

  1. Demand signals (how fast interest is growing)

  2. Competition depth (how crowded the niche is)

  3. Profitability (margin after fees + shipping)

  4. Versatility (gifting, birthday parties, educational value)

  5. Evergreen vs seasonal lifecycle

We will work through each of these step by step.

Step 1: Research Demand Signals Before the Trend Peaks

Here are the best sources Amazon sellers use to predict toy movements.

Trend Sources to Track Weekly

  • Amazon Best Sellers (Toys & Games category)
    Look 50–200, not just the top 10. Early movers start here.

  • Google Trends
    Search both general terms (“STEM toy”) and specific SKUs.

  • TikTok / Instagram Reels
    Toys go viral with kids and parents often before sellers notice.

  • YouTube Influencer Reviews
    Younger audiences drive strong toy momentum.

  • Parenting forums & mum blogs
    They discuss what’s “about to become popular” weeks in advance.

  • Educational toy platforms
    Montessori-inspired or STEM products can trend before mainstream stores realise.

  • Toy manufacturer trade shows
    Especially Nuremberg, London, New York, Dallas.

Each of these signals gives you time advantage, which translates directly to ROI.

Step 2: Validate Demand With Search and Sales Indicators

Once you see early signals, validate the size of the opportunity using marketplace data.

Look for These Concrete Indicators:

  • Keyword search volume increasing month over month

  • Products climbing the Amazon Best Seller Ranking

  • Competitors increasing price (sign of strong demand)

  • Launches of similar items (market wakes up)

  • Advertising activity increasing (seller confidence)

If multiple data points align, trend confirmation is strong.

Step 3: Check Real Profitability (Not Just Revenue)

Too many sellers buy toys just because they look popular.
Profitability matters more than popularity.

Calculate margin using:

  • Landed cost (wholesale + shipping)

  • Amazon fees (FBA or FBM)

  • VAT/import duties (EU/UK)

  • Prep and storage costs

  • Selling price

Look for 30%+ ROI to make the item worthwhile.

Step 4: Gap Analysis — Where Competitors Miss Opportunities

A toy can be in demand, yet retailers still lose money due to:

  • Poor listing quality

  • Bad images

  • No A+ content

  • No bullet point keywords

  • Weak bundled value

When you see:

  • high demand + weak listings,
    you’re staring at an opportunity.

Especially for Amazon FBA sellers.

Step 5: Understand Toy Category Timing (Critical)

Toy trends have cycles, and planning around them matters.

Evergreen Toy Trends

Great for year-round sales:

  • Montessori educational toys

  • Role-play toys

  • Toddler developmental toys

  • Sensory learning toys

  • Fine motor skill toys

Seasonal Toy Opportunities

Peak around:

  • Christmas

  • Easter

  • Back-to-School

  • Summer holidays

Understanding timing = avoiding stock traps.

Step 6: Use Tools Amazon Sellers Rely On

Here are the most useful tools for spotting toys early:

Step 7: Pre-Test Before Bulk Buying

The smartest retailers test small.

For Amazon:

  • Start with 24–72 units

  • Use FBA for faster Buy Box entry

  • Track sell-through speed

  • Scale only when velocity is proven

For physical stores:

  • Trial one shelf display or POS focus

  • Monitor what parents reach for first

Testing reduces risk and increases clarity.

10 Criteria to Confirm a Toy Will Trend

When evaluating toy potential, look for:

  1. Solves a parent or child need

  2. Seen on multiple trend sources

  3. Social media reactions are enthusiastic

  4. Low number of high-quality Amazon listings

  5. Increasing keyword search volume

  6. Evergreen play value

  7. High gifting potential

  8. Packaging stands out

  9. Fits age groups with strong purchase frequency (2–6 is golden)

  10. Target retail price works (£10–£35)

When 7+ are true, the toy is a strong opportunity.

Mistakes Amazon Sellers Make When Choosing Toys

Here are the top five:

  • Focusing on seasonal items only

  • Ignoring profitability

  • Ordering too much too early

  • Selling toys with large safety restrictions

  • Copying competitors rather than researching

Avoiding these mistakes protects ROI.

Summary Checklist (Use Every Time You Review a Toy)

  • Is demand growing?

  • Are listings weak?

  • Are reviews positive?

  • Is the price stable?

  • Can you earn 30%+ ROI?

  • Can it convert in your target region (UK/US/EU)?

  • Does it sell outside of Christmas?

If you tick most boxes, you’re on the right track.

Final Word: Trend Prediction Is a Skill

The ability to spot toys early is a repeatable process.

Once you learn:

  • how to read demand signals,

  • validate profitability,

  • understand market timing,

  • and spot listing weaknesses,
    profits become predictable.

you will grow faster than the competition.

Fox & Fable Toysellers - Toys Distributor

At Fox & Fable Toysellers, we hand-select wholesale toys one by one, using market research, demand signals, and trend indicators to ensure they are high-velocity and highly profitable.

Many of the toys we supply to retailers generate 30%+ ROI on Amazon, sometimes much higher, and we never offer stock that hasn’t proven a successful sell-through.

If you’d like access to reliable, trending, research-backed products from a trusted toy wholesale supplier, check our current stocklist and discover what’s moving right now.