Expected Sell-Through Rate: Forecasting Sales for Toys & Miniatures
Expected Sell-Through Rate is the projected percentage of inventory that will sell within a defined time period, based on historical data, category performance, and market demand.
In the toy and miniature retail sectors, expected sell-through rate determines purchasing strategy for trending toys, new releases, and Amazon FBA products. High expected sell-through means a SKU is likely safe for deeper stock commitments, while lower rates indicate caution. Retailers and toy wholesale suppliers use this metric when forecasting profitable toys wholesale or deciding how much of a new Warhammer, Deadzone, or Armada release to carry.
Example in practice:
A seller reviews past releases and anticipates that 70% of a new Combat Patrol variant will sell within 30 days. They order accordingly to avoid overstock.
Why does this matter?
Accurate sell-through forecasting:
- Protects cash flow
- Reduces inventory risk
- Informs smarter purchasing decisions
